Directory of Posts

As the blog grows longer, it gets tedious retrieving a posting from several years or months back: it doesn’t show up on the Home page any longer and -unless it’s a favourite reading item- all you can do is scan through the archive month by month or try Google to look it up. This list gives an overview of all postings by topic.

Topics covered are:
  1. Precious metal mining - Strategy & fundamentals
  2. Precious metal mining - Tactics - Performance relative to gold or silver
  3. Miners' News
  4. Precious metals (non-mining related)
  5. Volatility and Derivatives
  6. Miscellaneous
  7. Vastgoedcertificaten (Real estate investments) -Postings in this topic are in Dutch, reference is made to a topic specific new blog.

Precious metal mining - Strategy & fundamentals (1)

Global mine production of Gold and Silver
12 May 2017
While explaining very long wave patterns in precious metal prices, it is often stated that "low prices are the cure for low prices". The underlying rationale is that low prices impose marginal mine production to close down thereby diminishing global output. (...)

Silver miner ETF's : A benchmark
21 October 2016
Silver miners are barely significant when compared to the gold mining sector, Despite doubling, gold miners remain but a niche market. With two Silver Miner ETF's this tiny sector is very well covered.

Designed to outperform
A benchmark between Large Cap Gold Miner ETFs
12 Sept 2016
The first severe correction since the onset of the gold miner recovery that started late January raised doubt and fear among investors. Not surprisingly miners gave way much more than did precious metals.

The rising tide lifting all boats
12 July 2016
"A bull market in mining stocks is beneficial to all of them" is what is depicted by this blog title. Is it really true? Or more precisely to what extent it is true?

Worldwide mine production of gold and silver
27 April 2016
A commonly stated explanation for low (or high) precious metal prices is that "low prices are the cure for low prices". The underlying rationale is that low prices impose marginal mine production to close down thereby diminishing global output. High prices would then allow mining companies to ramp up production by bringing on line mines and ore layers that were not profitable at the much lower precious metal prices. These are simplifications, tending to overlook the essential.


Global mine production of precious metals
April 6, 2015
(You find an updated version posted on Apr 27, 2016)

Precious metal miner ETF's: a benchmark
June 12, 2014
The 2013 cyclical gold bear market and the crash of precious metal mining stocks leaves investors shattered. Some have been lured in again during the early 2014 recovery, while others are waiting to get their toes wet. A few mining analysts left the scene, while many saw their audience dwindle. Investors with limited funds and/or time for a due diligence study may gain exposure to the precious metal mining sector through purchasing one of the exchange traded funds (ETF's).

The volatile NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index
Nov 7, 2014
Since a couple of years, precious metal miners are the absolute dogs of the stock market. Every recovery we enjoyed has rolled over, followed by an even deeper trough than the previous bear market bottom. Even before gold peaked in August 2011, miners had been lagging the rising price of the metal.

Sunday, 29 September 2013
The protracted downtrend of precious metal prices may have run its course, there is however no clear indication of much higher gold and silver prices in the near or medium term future. Gold is moving sideways, unable to uphold $1400 for more than a few days. Producers are scrutinizing their mining sites and not without reason. Production at mines with high total production costs may need to be scaled back. Any new mining development will need to factor in lower gold prices going forward and the internal rate of return will be substantially lower...

Saturday, 9 March 2013
Several illustrous precious metal mining gurus have been warning for it: an explorer shake out is coming.
As Rick Rule uses to phrase it: "Many explorers will inevitably tend towards their intrinsic value: zero", qualifying the typical ill managed nano-cap as "would-be explorers lead by butchers, bakers and candle stick makers".


Monday, 10 December 2012
Mining Shares versus Precious Metals
The precious metal side
Investing in precious metal bullion is relatively easy: you have only two (or three including platinum) metals to choose from. Coins or bars makes little difference: the premium is higher the smaller the item. (...)


Monday, 29 October 2012
A first glance: year-to-date graphs of :
1. GDX, Van Eck's large-cap Gold Mining ETF,
2. GDXJ, Van Eck's junior Gold Mining ETF,
3. SIL, the Global X Silver Mining ETF,
4. GLDX, the Global X Gold Explorer ETF.


FRIDAY, 28 SEPTEMBER 2012
Several gold explorers have popped and some have doubled (or even more). Does this mean the best days already are behind us? Not quite. If some gold explorers put down a stellar rally over the last few weeks, this mainly is some recovery after the dire malperformance during the preceding months, when explorers were slashed and diced, leaving investors with a couple of dimes on the dollar.


Jun 27, 2012
A gold explorer ETFEarly October 2011, I pointed to the poor performance of junior gold stocks and of explorers in particular. With GLDX, the Global X Gold Explorer ETF, we have a suitable benchmark...


Apr 09, 2012
There are two gold and silver miners indices frequently referred to: the Philadelphia Gold and Silver miners index with ticker ^XAU (data since Dec 19, 1983) and the AMEX Unhedged Gold...


Mar 27, 2012
Searching for excellence
Precious metal explorers as investment vehicles have a long standing track record of extreme volatility. As Rick Rule of Sprot Asset Mgt. USA uses to formulate it:“We have known both the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat".


Mar 12, 2012
Abstract
There are a couple of benchmark indices around composed of major precious metal miners. The more common one is the AMEX Unhedged Gold Miners index with ticker symbol HUI. The index is around...


Feb 05, 2012
Close to a year ago, I first pointed to this junior mining index used as a benchmark for Van Eck’s GDXJ junior mining ETF. See : A junior gold mining index. Back then, the index was managed by the...


Oct 10, 2011
On the gold miner pulse page of this blog, I have been pointing to the dramatic underperformance of juniors in the brutal miners swoon caused by the recent severe gold correction. Since early April,...


Aug 20, 2011
Miner underperformance
The underperformance of precious metal miners relative to silver and gold bullion has become disgraceful. It has been the subject of many an article lately and illustrious...

GLDX: the proof of the pudding is in the eating
May 27, 2011
An earlier posting: “GDXJ or GLDX, what to choose in the Gold Exploring Realm?” has been focussing on the differences in approach and ‘investing universe’ between the two ETF’s. As GLDX now has a...

- May 22, 2011 -
Over seven months ago, I' ve written the posting which was going to turn out one of the more popular among readers of this blog: Valuation Metrics of Canadian Gold and Silver Miners


Mar 21, 2011
Large Miners underperform precious metals. There is plenty of evidence that major gold stocks could not keep up with the rising price of gold. Measured by the HUI/Gold or XAU/Gold metric, major gold stocks...


Mar 07, 2011 - Those investing in junior gold miners or explorer/developers may scan through their own little universe of stocks they have invested in or are planning to do so. They certainly look at graphs providing the necessary view on historic performance,...


Feb 11, 2011
The GDXJ ETF issued by Van Eck has become a reference for precious metals mining investors. Launched only 15 months ago, GDXJ has grown to 2.18 Billion $ by Feb. 7.It counts 60 different positions among explorers & developers and some emerging...


Oct 18, 2010
When dealing with mineral rights of mining enterprises, Canada has its NI 43-101 Metal Valuation Report, a standard for mining companies to comply with when reporting on their reserves and resources. Those documents are stored and can be retrieved...

In a recent essay, Adam Hamilton of Zeallc.com pointed to the strong performance of the GDXJ Exchange Traded Fund since it was launched hardly one year ago by Van Eck. Especially last two months GDXJ is outperforming both the large cap focussed GDX...

Recent interviewde Alix Steel van StreetTV John Doody, editor van GoldStockAnalyst.com, over de goud- en zilvermijnen uit het GDXJ ETF die hoofdzakelijk op US beurzen verhandeld worden.Videolink: Alix Steel van StreetTV interviews John...


When comparing gold mining companies, operational key elements, such as cash cost per ounce produced are a key metric. "Cash cost per ounce produced" is a non-GAAP performance measure which provides an indication of the mining and processing...


GDXJ: de junior goudmijnen tracker
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/05/gdxj-de-junior-goudmijnen-tracker.html

Overlevingsstrategie van mijnbedrijven
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2009/12/overlevingsstrategie-van-mijnbedrijven.html

De winsthefboom van goudmijnen
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2009/12/de-winsthefboom-van-goudmijnen.html


Precious metal mining - Tactics - Performance relative to gold or silver (2)
Gold Miner Pulse page
(Updated frequently)
The focus of this blog page is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.
Special attention is paid to the miners covered by the database 'Canadian gold and silver mining', for which a capital weighted index of gold- and silver miners is calculated. Aggregated performance is one thing, it's also very illustrative that miner and explorer performance has been diverging from outperforming the metals by a wide margin to losing ground completely.


Miners relative to gold: Long term charts on the HUI gold miners index
March 21, 2017
Miners and Gold bullion

There clearly is a good correlation between miners and gold bullion, which doesn't come as a surprise. However, when the much claimed leverage is concerned, it seems to get a bit tricky. There sometimes is upside leverage with miners outperforming a rising gold price. We've also witnessed miners lagging gold in its ascent. Yet invariably, gold retreating implies an ugly decline for gold miners. 


Linear Regression between the Gold Price and the HUI miners index
April 26, 2017 - August update
As gold recovers towards $1300, enthusiasm for the miners is still at the backburner. We are miles away from the collective euphoria witnessed only little over a year ago.


Precious metal miners relative to Metal Prices
December 31, 2016
Precious metal prices determine the revenue of gold or silver mining companies. Their mining costs may vary widely and moreover are subject to fluctuations of foreign exchange rates.  Yet it still makes sense to compare miners relative to the metals.


Regression between the HUI miners index and the Gold Price
November 17, 2016
The miners rally since end January has been almost miraculous, with the HUI index more than doubling over less than six months. Since mid August however, much of the gains have evaporated. That doesn't come as a surprise because gold is back down to around $1225, from its 'lofty high' over $1360/oz both in the second week of July and early August.


Gold miner Impulse phase
August 6, 2016
Over half a year has lapsed since Gold and Silver miners bottomed on Jan 19. Time to make an evaluation of the first half year of a rejuvenated precious metals bull market and the impulse phase on precious metal miners.

Gold relative to the Philadelphia Gold and Silver miners index
June 9, 2016
The past cyclical gold bear market has been both lengthy and severe for the precious metals, but for precious metal miners it has been detrimental. How devastating the gold and silver miner bear market has been is well illustrated when plotting a miners index together with gold on a comparable scale.

Gold miner rally: Bull market logic
May 9, 2016
Ever since bottoming barely above 100 on Jan 19, 2016, the HUI gold miners index more than doubled.  It closed at 226,1 on Friday May 6, up 125% from its trough or 103% year-to-date.  However, after peaking at 233.5 by the Apr 29 close, we witnessed a week with wild gyrations, starting with a three days losing streak culminating in the 10.25% landslide loss on Wednesday May 4.  Much overdone so it seems, since the Thursday recovery rally was in fact anticipating precious metals eventually firming on Friday May 6.

Gold mining bear starting its fifth year
Jan 3, 2016
As we start a new year, it's time to make an update on the situation of gold and silver miners, using the approach you also find in the 'gold miner pulse' blog page and/or the miner performance page. Those pages have been updated with fresh information as of Dec 31st, 2015.

Miners boosted
Dec 7, 2015
American stock markets rallied towards the Friday close, the late recovery however didn't make up for prior losses culminating in the Thursday slide



Aug 31, 2015

Since almost five years, I've been monitoring how the precious metal miners and explorers covered in the Gold Miner Pulse database fluctuate up and more often down. From a majority of gains over losses few months after the start in Nov 2010, we have evolved to presently only five long term gains left.


July 24, 2013
The summer slump for precious metals has turned into a nightmare, with gold breaking below $1100, platinum into the triple digits and silver well below $15. While the July slide is pretty bad, what makes it worse is precious metals setting fresh multi-year lows.



Gold and miners: identifying the bear market logic
May 11, 2015
During the early years of the secular gold bull in the previous decade, gold miners have been outperforming the metal by a more than decent margin. In its second phase, gold rose almost in lock-step with the miners, when approximating those using the ARCA index of unhedged gold miners (HUI). The narrow range of the HUI relative to bullion has been used as a trading rule, successfully... until it failed as all ' trading rules' did in the 2008 financial crisis


Miners relative to gold: long term graphs on HUI
January 31, 2015

Two gold miner bear markets compared

In addition to the HUI/Gold candlestick graphs shown in previous posting, I include a historic and another long time frame chart of both the HUI index and the HUI/Gold ratio.

Gold miners: three decades for naught
January 27, 2015
The Philadelphia gold and silver mining index (ticker symbol XAU) has been around for decades, with the publicly available data series going back to December 1983. On that first Dec 19 the XAU closed at 107.06, while gold quoted $375/oz. Fast forward to 2015 January 21: Gold topped $1302 (after the long anticipated QE-bazooka by the ECB), while the XAU closed at 81.12. Even though revenues per ounce rose by 247%, the mining index lost 24.2% in well over 31 years.

Three year slide for precious metal miners
December 31, 2014
Buying pressure wanes on broad stock markets, having rallied to new highs only some days after the latest pull-back. Precious metals have been oscillating. On this last full trading day of 2014, gold regained $1200, while silver gained 2.9% to close at $16.27. The Gold to silver ratio still stands at 73.7, barely below its recent multi-year high.


Halloween gold slide
October 31, 2014
It 's not just pumpkins and scary masks. This time there are daggers hiding behind the cloaks and the blood on the streets is more than just tomato juice...

Miners back to square 1
September 27, 2014
Ultimately the broad stock market rally ran out of steam. The S&P retreated from its all time high and now is back to 1982.8. Not that this makes any difference for precious metals. After another rocky week, the metals end mixed. 

Relentless slide
September 21, 2014
The S&P broad market index holds above 2000, within a sigh of its all time high. Bond markets suffer somewhat as rates have risen above the August lows. In the mean time, precious metals continue to slide, irrespective of whether the economic indicators coming through are good or bad, whether the stock market goes up or down or geopolitical tensions ease or aggravate.

Their last trump card...
April 22, 2014
The current circumstances in the precious metals markets are remarkably similar to those on June 27 and 28 of 2013.

Nearing the end of a major pull-back ?
Thursday, 10 April 2014
Any major trend reversal never comes without any hick-up, questioning the reversal. Throughout the gold-miner bear market we have seen quite a few false recoveries, which were merely decent exit points allowing investors to mitigate their loss. In every occasion worse was to come. The major pull-back we faced in the second half of March is one of those key-events questioning the trend. Anybody doubting the reversal should have sold by mid-March, the believers were and still are offered an opportunity to add to their positions.

Miners rally into second gear
February 12, 2014
The worst asset class of 2013 has metamorphosed into the high flyer of the first months of 2014. After a few weeks of hesitation, the gold miners rally gets into second gear. When evaluating miners relative to precious metals, the paradigm change is revealing itself. Throughout nearly the complete gold miner bear market, the main index for unhedged miners quoting on American exchanges (HUI) was losing ground relative to gold. Moreover it rarely even regained its declining 200 days moving average. The trend reversed and HUI/Gold now breaks above its 200 dma.

Miners reviving
January 20, 2014
Over most of 2013, poor precious metal gains and broad stock markets hesitating, would have sent miners sliding. However a different mantra seems to have taken the lead. The HUI index added 3.47% over the week, making HUI/Gold appreciate to ...


January 3, 2014
A happy and prosperous 2014 to all readers.
In addition to the HUI/Gold candlestick graphs shown in previous posting, I include a long time frame chart of both the HUI index and the HUI/Gold ratio.


December 30, 2013
Last two years, we've witnessed a plunge of precious metal prices from before Christmas leading to the New Year. The relentless gold bear raids from mid April onwards, lead to a multi year low for gold on June 28 and the following recovery completely was wiped out with gold equalling the June 28 low on Thursday Dec 19. It seems the gold bear has gotten ahead of itself.
Much the same accounts for the miners, which ceased to leverage down precious metal prices last week and were vigorously reviving, despite meagre gains for the metals. Over the short trading week leading to Friday Dec 27, gold added a timid 0.86% on the Comex close to end at $1213.80, while -after its major plunge- silver added 3.43% closing at 20.08. The HUI index of major gold and silver miners added 4.23% with the HUI/Gold ratio now up to 0.1633, hovering above its decade low.


Saturday, 24 August 2013
After grinding lower the first week of August, precious metals made a U-turn. The sentiment change sent the heavily depressed miners soaring. HUI/Gold made it to 0.20 last week and now stands at 0.195. (for fresh graphs, check the GoldMinerPulse page). While we could barely imagine any value below that 0.20 threshold until recently, we're glad the gloomy days are behind us (at least for a while). Last Friday gold peaked above $1400 intraday for the first time since early June.


Wednesday, 7 August 2013
We 've witnessed a nascent precious metal miner recovery since June 27, as miners have started recovering even before gold found its final bottom below $1200 in the morning of June 28. For as long as the stealth gold rally had legs, miners responded favorably. The gold rally was petering out the week after last posting: The stealth gold recovery rally. Gold has been sliding from July 29 onwards. Despite a small technical recovery last Friday, the gold slide aggravates. Whenever there is some rumor out about "tapering" the QE3/QE4 bond purchase programs of the FED, hell breaks loose.

June 29, 2013
Precious metal investors have been watching in disbelief how gold tumbled through all resistance levels eventually bottoming well below $1200 in European trading and during the NYMEX morning session, yesterday June 28. The recovery rally however was written in the stars ...

June 18, 2013
When plotting the HUI index (basket of unhedged gold miners) relative to gold, we've been witnessing an almost uninterrupted slide since nearly three years. HUI/gold made a post Feb 2001 low last month (well below the crisis bottom level of 2008). As gold held above $1400 a couple of weeks ago, HUI/Gold was flirting with its 0.200 resistance. Until few months ago it was difficult to conceive HUI/Gold ever breaking below that 0.200; yet it has and is again challenging its 0.181 bottom.


June 17, 2013
Among the ever growing family of exchange traded funds (ETF's), there are quite a few leveraged products. Direxion probably is the larger distributor of this particular type of ETF's.


May 20, 2013
George Soros confused the markets with his gold ETF sales. Now he seems having put a on a far riskier bet. Not only he bought a fair stake in GDX, the main large cap gold mining ETF, Soros also gambles on a swift gold recovery though a considerable long position using call options on the Market Vectors Gold Miner Junior ETF (GDXJ).


Apr 20, 2013
Gold price manipulation reached its culmination on Monday with an over-night low around $1320. The multiyear resistance of gold at $1525 was broken the previous week, triggering the plunge. After a suggestion by IMF president Christine Lagarde, rumours were out

Apr 13, 2013
With gold down $84 today and silver shedding $1.81, we can't have much more... and we got more on Monday.
Continuing the slide at that pace, by the end of April we will get paid to carry away those metals previously considered precious... and smelly beggars outside the shopping mall will put down a sign in front of them saying: "no gold please". You don't buy the story? Then it's perhaps the time to stop shorting those metals.


Feb 16, 2013
A graph says more than a thousand words: today Gold Miners hit rock bottom relative to gold.


Jan 13, 2013
Approach
The focus of this blog article is on gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver. Special attention is also paid to the miners ...


Sep 8, 2012
Weak employment data spur the expectation on the FED initiating QE3 rather soon, which in turn prevented the stock market from collapsing on the bad news. The S&P ultimately closes with a 0.4% gain.
The expectation of further liquidity injection really kick-started precious metals. Gold had eased to below $1700 but leaped over 2% within minutes. By 4:45 pm gold is up 2.06% to $1736.3. A similar story for silver quoting at $33.67 up nearly 3%. PGM's lag, with Pt adding 0.5% and Pd up 1.25%.

Silver delivery problems expected
Sep 5, 2012
Daniela Cambone (Kitco News) interviews Bill Murphy of GATA, the Gold Anti Trust Action committee.


Jul 02, 2012
Approach
The focus of this blog article is on gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver. Since the start...


May 28, 2012
Gold and Silver Miner weakness has been with us for too long. On the "gold miner pulse" blog page, you find continuous (at least weekly) updates on how major precious metal miners are priced relative...


May 15, 2012
Havoc during the financial crisis
Before the 2008 financial crisis and as late as March 08, when gold peaked above $1000 for the first time ever, the popular HUI index of unhedged gold miners...

Apr 07, 2012
Precious metals miners are unable to change momentum: despite a recovery of both the gold and silver price on Maudy Thursday (April 5), both our GMP-list based indices continued their slide, with a...

Monday, 2 January 2012
The focus of this article is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver. Data used are 2011 end-of-year.
Special attention is paid to the miners covered by the database 'Canadian gold and silver mining', for which a capital weighted index of gold- and silver miners is calculated. Aggregated performance is one thing, it's also very illustrative that miner and explorer performance has been diverging from outperforming the metals by a wide margin to losing ground completely.

Apr 23, 2011
Het achterblijven van zilvermijnen bij de explosieve stijging van de zilverprijs. Gemeten naar de verhouding tussen de koers van de GlobalX zilvermijnen ETF “SIL” en de zilverprijs, zakken... 

Apr 14, 2011
Precious metals posted steady gains throughout the day, with gold fractionally above its previous ATH closing at $1475.8 up 1.25% and silver at a new 31year high at $42.18, up a stunning 3.7%.


Apr 11, 2011
Silver started the week higher in Sydney and on Asian trading, while gold was hovering at Friday’s ATH. Clouds started packing at the opening in Europe and we could kiss the highs goodbye. All ended worse as gold lost over $12 at $1463 by 4 pm,...


Apr 09, 2011
Gold is up $17 or over 1% to a fresh ATH of $1475 and silver made a 3% quantum leap of $1.28 not only passing the $40 mark but leaving it behind.Miners follow the precious metals up, in spite of general stock market...


Post 2008 lows for miners relative to precious metals
Mar 12, 2011
When looking at the relative price level of precious metal miners - as determined by the HUI/Gold ratio, it seems little plausible that gold is in fact barely below its all time high: PM miners look as if their revenues have been falling...

Silverminers underperforming silver bullion?
Feb 27, 2011
As is demonstrated in several articles (1), gold mining majors don’t offer any leverage over gold bullion. Miners outperforming gold during rallies is largely undone by major swoons during gold retreats.

Decades of underperformance
Feb 02, 2011
Gold investors may not like this, but the main Gold & Silver miners index, that has been around for a while, exhibits decades of underperformance. The gold miners index most referenced now is the "Unhedged Gold Bugs index" with ticker ^HUI.

Gold market has bottomed
Jan 31, 2011
January 2011 brought about a severe correction in the gold market. After the steep rally that ended on a multiple top and a new all time high in USD during December 2010, the new year started with a gradual slide, acerbating on news of a small hedge...

Did you say leverage?
Jan 07, 2011
A myth often heard is that precious metal miners offer a good leverage over the price of the metals. With precious metals rising the PM miners see their cash flow multiply at constant mining costs. I'm not digging into why this isn't always the...


Goudmijnen: een turbo op de goudprijs ?
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/02/goudmijnen-een-turbo-op-de-goudprijs.html


Miners' News (3)

Primero Mining: from heaven to hell
27 Aug 2017
Primero Mining slid to the last but one position in the Canadian Gold Pulse database in terms of return since inclusion at CAD 5.65 on Nov 19, 2010. Remarkably, this miner used to be one of the better performers in 2014, when the miner bear market had slashed mining stock valuations across the board.


Oban Mining to become Osisko 2.0
24 May2016
Anyone familiar to the gold mining business knows about the acquisition of mid-tier producer Osisko Mining by Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold. Excess working capital of Osisko was pooled in a new gold streamer named Osisko Royalties.

Canadian gold and silver miner performance: an update
25 Febr 2016
Back in November 2010 as I started monitoring the Canadian gold and silver miner performance, I used the mining stocks covered by the GoldMinerPulse database. This source contains resource and reserve information on nearly 100 gold or silver miners, explorers and developers. It has become subscription based from this year onward: as such our 'miner universe' will gradually diverge.

Pretium Resources: slide justified?
Sept. 14, 2012
Pretium came with very decent drilling resultslately (and was rewarded with a sell off). Last week, I saw some article pointing to PVG dropping below its 200 dma. This may also have triggered some additional selling spree on Friday 7.

Dec 26, 2011
Website : http://www.silvermexresources.com/s/Home.aspGoldMinerPulse
This company has been acquired by First Majestic Silver. Press coverage discontinued !

Dec 26, 2011
Website: ;www.northerndynastyminerals.com/ResourceSinceacquiring the Pebble Project in 2001, Northern Dynasty has delineated andadvanced one of the world's greatest stores of mineral...

Nov 24, 2011
Valuation data for a representative list of Canadian gold and silver miners and explorers are maintained on the Gold Miner Pulse site (GMP). On the dedicated ‘Gold Miner Pulse’ page of this blog...

Oct 25, 2011
Crazy Horse Resources is a Vancouver based mineral exploration company, that is focused on developing the TaysanCopper-Gold Porphyry Project, in Batangas Province, Philippines. Batangas is on the main...

Aug 06, 2011
On the Gold Miner Pulse page a graph is shown where the "performance disparity" is illustrated among the gold and silver miners of the GMP database. Some lucky picks have been outperforming...

June 27, 2011
Long time shareholders have had the hard time the company has. After the permitting process took over five years, the Canadian mining company needed looking for cash under more difficult circumstances. About 14 years after the first drillings on the RAM deposit in Idaho, there is finally an outlook for actual production. Mine construction is ongoing but output is not expected within another year. Retrofitting the hydro-metallurgy site near Kellogg has started to enable the cobalt production facility, which will be delivering cobalt with the highest purity.

June 07, 2011
Seabridge Gold (website) is a gold exploration company. Seabridge Gold’s resource base of gold, copper and silver is one of the world’s largest. The principal projects are located inCanada. Their objective is to grow resource and reserve ownership per share. Their risk-reducing strategy: acquire North American deposits; expand them through exploration; move them to reserves through engineering; and sell or joint venture them to established producers for mine construction and operation. Seabridge gold quotes both on AMEX in USD (Ticker SA) and on Toronto-TSX in CAD (Ticker SEA.TO)

Mar 18, 2011
This page contains links to press releases and articles on NOVAGOLD (company website).
With two world-class projects, experienced partners and one of the largest reserve/resource bases in its peer group, NovaGold offers a compelling investment opportunity for investors looking for exposure to a rising metals market.

Nov 11, 2010
(Mineral) Explorers often expect that raising capital is easier with a low nominal stock price. This opens the door to the realm of penny stocks.Personally I don't favour penny stocks for several reasons:- A low (penny) stock price is just an...

Sep 30, 2010
Novagold reached a new two year high yesterday trading up to $9.20. is it a buy or a sell? All considerations.
Pro's:+ NG quotes at $8.94 at close yesterday, an impressive gain over last few weeks, but it stays well below half the November 2007...

Sep 20, 2010
With some sense of irony one could state: “Junior mining is a mine field.”Over the last few months, I have been posting just twice on a junior mining company worth taking a closer look at: Formation Mining:...

Genco resources: de storm doorstaan
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/08/genco-resources-de-storm-doorstaan.html

Formation metals: opnieuw een penny-stock
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/06/formation-metals-opnieuw-een-penny.html

Bonus warrant offering flaws raising capital
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/03/bonus-warrant-offering-flaws-raising.html


Precious metals (4)


A review of gold price volatility: 1973-2017
July 19, 2017
It’s often heard that gold takes the staircase up, but the elevator down. A gold rally would then consist in a gradual process of relatively small but consistent daily upward moves. The gold cartel ...


A case for the 'white precious metals'
Jan 5, 2017
The precious metal recovery in January last year was led by gold, with the white precious metals - especially silver and platinum - following reluctantly. The idea of a more sluggish growth in China translated into expectations of lower demand for industrial metals. In January 2016, copper quoted at a decade low.


Platinum, Palladium and Silver relative to Gold
11 March 2016
The rejuvenated gold recovery quickly wipes all past hardship from our collective memories. Yet the yellow metal only bottomed on Dec 3, 2015. The 'white precious metals' continued weakening unabated thereafter until somewhen in January 2016.



September 29, 2015
From September until the end of the year is repeated over and over to be the seasonally strongest period of the year for precious metals. Such statistics however are averages and calculated standard errors are considerable. Yet we now face the fifth consecutive year with precious metals unable to uphold any gain during autumn. A worsening economic outlook for East-Asian economies keeps the lid on precious metals.


June 26, 2015
It’s often heard that gold takes the staircase up, but the elevator down. A gold rally would then consist in a gradual process of relatively small but consistent daily upward moves...


March 9, 2015
The decision of the London bank HSBC plc to close its gold vaults, as revealed by Andrew McGuire, has been the talk of the weekend. HSBC is the custodian of the SPDR Gold ETF - GLD. Last year GLD has transferred most of its gold to these vaults.

October 19, 2014
From September until the end of the year is repeated over and over to be the seasonally strongest period of the year for precious metals. Such statistics however are averages and calculated standard errors are considerable. Yet we now face the fourth consecutive year with gold selling off during autumn. Could we do any better investing in any other precious metal ?

Metals not equally precious investments ...
August 11, 2014
While speculators are focusing on price changes of the metal of their choice to set up a trade, the long term investor is better off studying the price changes over the long haul and the relative price changes of one precious metal to another. It is most common to compare gold to any other precious metal through e.g. a Gold-to-Silver, or Gold-to-Platinum ratio. This tells you how many ounces of the second precious metal one ounce of gold would buy.

May 14, 2014
There are plenty of technical indicators working very well for a short time frames: RSI, MACD ...
However when it comes to determining the relative strength over the long haul of the gold price, or that of any other precious metal or commodity, it is more useful to compare to the average of the preceding period. In the following article, a simple moving average over 250 days is chosen, since that generally coincides with the number of trading days in a year.

April 17, 2014
The majority of traders in precious metals futures probably aren't the geniuses the outside world takes them for. They do have more and better market information and statistics and consistently apply those sources of information, with the algorithms implemented on their trading platforms. They continue adding to their personal -or their company's- profits until proven wrong.


Gold Price Volatility: Real Swing still to come...
October 23, 2013
The below graph shows the price of gold since the start of 2008, gold was about to break above $1000/oz for the first time in history. We all more or less remember what was to follow, but human memory is selective and often narrows down to the more recent events.

The stealth gold recovery rally
Monday, 22 July 2013
Ever since bottoming in the morning of June 28, gold has been hesitantly drifting higher. The short first week of July, with American and Canadian exchanges closed for the national day, the yellow metal lingered on, apparently challenging its June 28 bottom. Gold closed the short week down 1%, however without closing below $1200. Ever since we seem to experience a stealth gold recovery rally. Until this morning, $1300 seemed to be a firm resistance for gold. After a few failed attempts, we're now vigorously steaming up higher.


May 7, 2013
It’s often heard that gold takes the staircase up, but the elevator down. A gold rally would then consist in a gradual process of relatively small but consistent daily upward moves. The gold cartel ...


Platinum group metals: a story of scarcity and industrial needs
Monday, 21 January 2013
Among precious metals, platinum deserves special attention because of several of its characteristics. Unlike gold or silver, platinum is an extremely hard metal, with high wear resistance. Alloying platinum with gold makes the alloy more malleable. Platinum is denser than gold and has with 21.45 g/cm³ over twice the density of silver. ...




Nov 12, 2012
The future casino
The futures volume traded exceeds the trade of physical products manyfold. This often is the case for soft commodities, crude and non-ferro metals. Yet precious metals really thrump all. Many on-line trading platforms don’t even allow any physical settlement, reducing a future contract to a bet on the future price.
The sale and purchase of a gold future requires both seller (the ‘short’) and buyer (the ‘long’) to make a deposit, tieing both to the contract.


Oct 12, 2012
From its 2012 bottom level to the $35 attained intraday, silver has rallied over 32%. This is almost the double of the mere 17% gold rallied from its $1537.5 bottom (LME fix) to an intraday close to $1800. Yet in a different perspective, gold is currently quoting at less than 10% below its all time high, while silver needs another 30% rally before coming close to its April 2011 peak level.


Sep 26, 2011
Het future casino
Het volume aan termijncontracten (futures) overtreft vele malen de fysieke handel van producent tot verbruiker. Dit is zo voor graanproducten en sommige non-ferro metalen, maar goud...


Silver-gold ratio seen from a different perspective
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2009/11/silver-gold-ratio-seen-from-different.html


Volatility and Derivatives (5)

Vigorous short-lived bear market bounces
Monday, 13 October 2014
There is nothing as vigorous as a bear market rally. After a severe swoon, the market gets oversold. Earlier sellers see an opportunity to get back in much cheaper, while cautious shorts may want to cover and lock in decent gains. When this mindset gets root among investors and speculators, a bear market rally is born. However, there is nothing as short-lived as a bear market rally. That's why I called them “bear market bounces” in the blog title.


May 13, 2012
Derivative positions are accumulating profits… while sweeping on to a catastrophe
"JPMorgan May Be a Trading Accident Waiting To Happen" is what you may like to read on Jesse’s cross road café blog....

Nov 02, 2011
Time value Speculators familiar with buying options know it too well: the option value erodes over time if the stock stays level. The option value is composed of two...

Selling options’
Sep 10, 2011
It has many names: going short an option, writing an option, selling an option.An option basicly concerns a tradable contract initiated by the party going short the option. Without any party going...

Dec 02, 2010
Technical analysis is usually aimed at market timing and determining entry, exit and/or stop-loss levels. Some volume driven technical indicators are also useful in more historic perspective for investment analysts involved in investor behaviour...


Nov 27, 2010
Some traders claim it‘s foolish, others will tell you it ‘s smart.Buying a call option ‘in the money’, you pay up the intrinsic value: the actual stock price minus the strike of the option plus a premium, mainly depending on the time left to...


Nov 16, 2010
Historic volatility is calculated using a time series of index (or stock price) close values. It is defined as the standard deviation on the series of percentage day-to-day variations. When considering all day-to-day variations, we obtain one single...


Dec 9, 2009
De volatiliteit wordt berekend uit de tijdreeks van slotniveaus van een index (of aandeel). Het is gedefinieerd als de standaardafwijking op de reeks procentuele dag-op-dag variaties. Als we alle dag-op-dag variaties beschouwen bekomen we één enkele historische volatiliteit, ...


Miscellaneous (6)

Abnormal returns
February 24, 2016
The 2017 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook (CS-GIRY) has been released.  This is the kind of message part of the investment community is looking for in the second half of February.

The not so 'United' Kingdom
June 24, 2016
The not so 'United Kingdom' as revealed by the geographic breakdown of the Leave/Remain published in following BBC article (Link in title)

Crédit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015
February 25, 2014
Every year in February, this much appreciated publication finds its way among investors. A short introduction to the main subjects covered: 1) Industries: their rise and fall, 2) Responsible investing: Does vice pay off? 3) Do equity discount rates mean revert?


March 3, 2014
This popular yearly publication goes in depth on three different questions puzzling many investors. It doesn't provide you with an easy unambiguous answer: there is no such one. Instead the statistical analysis gives you the insight necessary to recognize accepted misconceptions and false evidence.


August 28, 2012
It has been a while since I last posted something about this blog. The 100th post may well be a suitable occasion for that.
In its third year, this blog is maturing, with a monthly ...


May 02, 2012
Abstract
There are a couple of challenges facing Eugene Fama’s “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH). According to this hypothesis, trading at a profit always results in reducing market inefficiency....


Feb 11, 2012
The "Crédit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012" was released last week, which deserves a rapid posting. The yearbook highlights three subjects:
1) The real value of money
Whoever is...


Dec 18, 2011
U leest een artikel van 2011. Een meer recente blogpost over hetzelfde onderwerp is: Belgische Mono-holdings
Monoholdings zijn moederbedrijven boven grote beursgenoteerde bedrijven die als nagenoeg enig actief een aanzienlijk aandelenpakket hebben in het beursgenoteerde bedrijf. We tellen nog drie...


2 June 2011
A lot has been written on this topic, one contribution more controversial than the other. Many of those just focus on one aspect of society, usually the pet topic of the author. In five paragraphs I'm describing different aspects of both societies: Science, technology and manufacturing, Military spending, Health, Democracy and civil rights and finally Currency debasement and hyperinflation.


May 17, 2011
Abstract
We are often told that diversification is highly beneficial for portfolio performance.... which is only partly true, as markets are rather highly correlated. Correlation within economic...


May 14, 2011
We are often told that diversification is highly beneficial for portfolio performance.... which is only partly true, as markets are rather highly correlated. Correlation within economic sectors of...


Jan 05, 2011
Best wishes for 2011.I started this blog back in November 2009. Initially I mainly intended to keep track of valuable postings that otherwise would get lost and snowed under on different forums. Ambition grew over time as I realized I slowly...


Dec 02, 2010
Technical analysis is usually aimed at market timing and determining entry, exit and/or stop-loss levels. Some volume driven technical indicators are also useful in more historic perspective for investment analysts involved in investor behaviour...

Sep 30, 2010
The Maria Theresa Thaler is probably one of the most famous and well known coins of the world. See also following links:http://www.theresia.name/en/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Theresa_thaler Maria Theresia thaler, 1780 RestrikeOriginally...


Sep 04, 2010
De cijfers Tubize houdt 65 370 000 aandelen UCB aan, goed voor 35.62% van de beurskapitalisatie. Het aantal Tubize aandelen is 44 608 831, zodat één aandeel Tubize 1.4654 aandelen UCB vertegenwoordigt. Dat is dan meteen de hefboom: geen zware...


Inflation: best historic quote
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/03/inflation.html

Grondstoffen supercycli 2: edelmetalen
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/02/grondstoffen-supercycli-2.html

Grondstoffen supercycli 1: aardolie en basismetalen
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/02/grondstoffen-supercycli-1.html

Alternative energy: overestimated but underperforming
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2010/01/alternative-energy-overestimated-but.html



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