Monday, 21 May 2018

Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC)

  • What should we remember from the PDAC 2018?
  • Why didn't I come up with this any sooner?
Ever heard of the PDAC curse? Quite often, mining stocks plunge right after the annual PDAC meeting mid March. The seasonal pattern of the gold price is not very favorable in that particular period of the year. Right after the Chinese new year in February, physical gold demand tends to slump.  You often hear Frank Holmes talk about gold in terms of 'The Love Trade'. Especially in the big Asian emerging economies, gold is appreciated as a wedding gift. This tradition is firmly underpinned by weak currencies and above average inflation. Early summer is when the interest in physical gold should return. Moreover the 2018 Ramadan ends mid June, sparking also demand in the Arab world.

Tuesday, 24 April 2018

Long term performance of Gold Miners

Previous few postings have warned against betting on leverage when investing in gold mining stocks. Miners occasionally outperform when gold rallies really get traction. They seldom even prove a decent investment when a substantial number of influential investors are convinced that the bottom is in for the gold price. However, miners more often lag the metal while it's rising or slide precipitously upon gold weakening.  The focus now shifts to statistics on individual miners: both success stories and horrendous nightmares.

Sunday, 25 March 2018

What may spark the next miner rally?

Miners lagging the metals has been an understatement.
Even during last week, with gold up over 2.5% on balance, closing at $1346.8 the miner response was quite meek.  The HUI gold miners index added 3.33%; admittedly more, yet little convincing.

Wednesday, 21 February 2018

Crédit-Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018

The second half of February is the time when the new yearly edition of the Crédit-Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook (CS-GIRY). is released.  The investment community is eagerly looking forward to this publication.

Monday, 12 February 2018

Gold miners persistently lagging the metal

The latest downturn of gold brought the yellow metal to a Friday close of $1315.7, easing barely 1.22% over the week and still holding on to a tiny advance year-to-date.
However the HUI plunged 7.17% leveraging gold down sixfold. While miners had been persistently lagging the metals throughout 2017, their decline currently is aggravating.

Wednesday, 31 January 2018

End of the Palladium surge?

The Palladium price surpassed that of Platinum late September. Any precedent dates to the beginning of the century. Since October 10, Palladium has been more expensive than Platinum, widening the gap throughout the rest of 2017.

Sunday, 10 December 2017

Pre-positioning for a January rally

For the seventh consecutive year, there has been no autumn precious metals rally. About the best we got were some strong September months, after which a new slide was taking grip, occasionally interrupted by a half hearted recovery attempt.

Thursday, 30 November 2017

Sunday, 29 October 2017

Persistently lagging the metals

The last downturn of gold and silver brought the yellow metal to a Thursday close of $1266.2 to end the week at 1273.2, easing barely 0.53% over the week. However the HUI plunged 5.31% leveraging gold down tenfold. Miners have been persistently lagging the metals for most of 2017. 

Saturday, 9 September 2017

Euro Gold: a foreign perspective on the recent rally

There have been plenty of market comments on gold breaking above $1300/oz and holding on. Geo-political tensions on the North-Korean long-range missile launches and on nuclear tests - the last one with an H-bomb - predominated.  As we write September, raising the debt ceiling is another tough issue, possibly propelling gold.